Heat pumps are rapidly moving from a regional heating option to one of the most important technologies in the American home HVAC market.
During the first quarter of 2026, US shipments of air-source heat pumps exceeded shipments of fossil-fuel furnaces by 32 percent. The result extended a trend that has already seen heat pumps outsell gas furnaces for four consecutive years. They are also moving closer to conventional central air conditioners, suggesting that many households are choosing one appliance that can provide both heating and cooling instead of purchasing separate systems.
The transition does not mean that most existing American homes already rely on heat pumps. Millions of gas furnaces, boilers and older air-conditioning systems remain in service. However, current shipment figures and new-construction data show that heat pumps are becoming a default choice whenever builders or homeowners install new HVAC equipment.
Heat Pump Shipments Continue to Outpace Furnaces
The strongest evidence comes from equipment shipments reported by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute.
By the end of May 2026, manufacturers had shipped approximately 1.74 million air-source heat pumps to US customers, compared with about 1.23 million gas warm-air furnaces. Heat-pump shipments increased by 1.4 percent from the same period in 2025, while gas-furnace shipments declined by 10.5 percent. The latest figures can be reviewed in AHRI’s May 2026 shipment report.
Heat pumps have also narrowed the gap with central air conditioners. During the first five months of 2026, manufacturers shipped roughly 1.96 million central air conditioners and 1.74 million heat pumps. Because a heat pump can cool a home in summer and reverse operation to provide heat in winter, every heat pump purchase can potentially replace both a one-way air conditioner and a separate heating appliance.
Annual results tell a similar story. Manufacturers shipped approximately 3.6 million air-source heat pumps in 2025, about 12 percent more than the 3.2 million gas furnaces shipped during the year. Heat pumps have now outsold gas furnaces every year since 2021, according to market tracking published by RMI.
New Homes Are Increasingly Built Around Heat Pumps
New construction may provide an even clearer picture of where residential HVAC is heading.
The Building Decarbonization Coalition found that heat pumps were installed as the primary heating system in 46 percent of new US housing units completed in 2024. Forced-air furnaces accounted for 47 percent, leaving only a one-point difference between the two categories.
The latest US Census Bureau housing data show the transition continuing in 2025. Fifty-six percent of newly completed single-family homes used electricity as their heating fuel, compared with 42 percent using gas. In the South, 63 percent of completed single-family homes used heat pumps, while 53 percent of newly completed multifamily buildings nationwide had heat-pump heating systems.
Builders have several reasons to favour the technology. A heat pump provides heating and air conditioning through one system, reduces the need for separate equipment and can allow an all-electric development to avoid the expense of extending gas infrastructure to every property.
Why Heat Pumps Use Less Energy
A furnace produces heat by burning fuel or passing electricity through resistance elements. A heat pump operates differently by moving existing heat from one place to another.
During winter, refrigerant circulating through the system absorbs heat from outdoor air, even when the temperature feels cold, and transfers it indoors. During summer, the process reverses and removes heat from the home, functioning like a conventional air conditioner.
Because the system transfers heat instead of generating all of it directly, it can deliver substantially more heating energy than the electricity it consumes. The US Department of Energy explains in its heat-pump energy guidance that modern air-source systems can reduce electricity use by approximately 50 percent compared with electric furnaces and baseboard heaters.
This efficiency is the main reason heat pumps are considered climate-friendly. They avoid combustion inside the home and can become progressively cleaner as more renewable and low-carbon electricity enters the power grid.
Cold Weather Is No Longer an Automatic Dealbreaker
Older air-source heat pumps were most successful in warmer states, particularly across the South. Their capacity and efficiency could decline sharply during extended periods of freezing weather, leading many northern homeowners to depend on furnaces or electric-resistance backup heat.
Cold-climate models have changed that calculation. New compressors, variable-speed controls and improved refrigerant systems allow appropriately designed heat pumps to maintain greater capacity below 32 degrees Fahrenheit.
The Department of Energy’s Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump Challenge has worked with manufacturers including Bosch, Carrier, Daikin, Lennox, Midea, Rheem and Trane to accelerate systems designed for low-temperature performance.
Regional adoption nevertheless remains uneven. The South continues to lead, while the Midwest has a lower share of heat pumps in new homes. Cold-climate performance depends on selecting the correct equipment, calculating the building’s heating load and avoiding poor installation practices.
Some northern properties may still use dual-fuel systems that pair a heat pump with a gas furnace. The heat pump handles moderate conditions efficiently, while the furnace operates during the coldest periods or when fuel prices make backup heating more economical.
“Dominant” Does Not Yet Mean Most Existing Homes
Shipment leadership should not be confused with dominance across the entire installed housing stock.
The most recent detailed Residential Energy Consumption Survey found that approximately 13 percent of US households used a heat pump as their primary heating equipment in 2020. Central warm-air furnaces remained far more common because HVAC systems often remain in service for 15 years or longer.
Equipment shipment figures also do not translate directly into one system installed in one home. A large property may need multiple heat-pump outdoor units, while one central furnace may serve the entire building. Some heat pumps are added as secondary systems rather than replacing the primary heater.
RMI therefore cautions that manufacturer shipments represent market activity rather than an exact count of households changing their main heating system.
Heat pumps can reasonably be described as dominant among newly shipped heating appliances, increasingly common in new construction and close to overtaking central air conditioners. They are not yet the heating system used by most existing American households.
Climate Benefits Depend on Refrigerants and Electricity
Heat pumps eliminate direct furnace exhaust, but their environmental impact is not zero.
They consume electricity, meaning their total emissions partly depend on how that electricity is generated. A heat pump operating on a cleaner regional grid generally produces a larger emissions reduction than the same system operating in an area heavily dependent on coal or gas generation.
Refrigerants also matter. Older systems commonly used hydrofluorocarbons with high global-warming potential. Leaks during operation or disposal can offset part of the climate benefit created through energy efficiency.
The Environmental Protection Agency has introduced restrictions on higher-global-warming-potential refrigerants used in new air-conditioning and heat-pump equipment. The agency’s HFC transition guidance explains how manufacturers are moving toward lower-impact alternatives under the American Innovation and Manufacturing Act.
Proper installation, leak prevention and responsible refrigerant recovery at the end of a system’s life remain essential.
Upfront Cost Is Still the Largest Barrier
A heat pump can reduce energy consumption, but it is not automatically the cheapest system to install.
Project costs vary according to home size, local labour rates, ductwork condition, electrical capacity, equipment efficiency and whether the property requires multiple indoor zones. A homeowner replacing only a failed furnace may find a basic furnace less expensive than converting the entire heating and cooling system.
The economics are more favourable when both the furnace and air conditioner are approaching the end of their useful lives. In that situation, one heat-pump system may replace two major appliances.
Federal heat-pump tax credits that previously offered eligible households up to $2,000 ended after December 31, 2025. However, state, tribal and territorial Home Energy Rebate programs may continue offering income-based assistance, including potential heat-pump rebates of up to $8,000 where programs are available. Current options can be checked through the Department of Energy’s Home Upgrades portal.
Installation Quality Will Determine Whether the Transition Succeeds
A high-efficiency heat pump can perform poorly when it is oversized, undersized or connected to leaking ductwork.
Contractors need to calculate the home’s heating and cooling requirements rather than simply replacing an old furnace with equipment of the same rated capacity. Insulation, air sealing and window quality also affect how large the system must be and how often backup heating is required.
A properly designed system can provide steady temperatures by running at lower output for longer periods. An oversized unit may cycle repeatedly, reduce humidity control and create unnecessary wear.
The growing market will therefore require more trained HVAC technicians, electricians and energy auditors. Enrollment in two-year college HVAC programs increased substantially during the past five years, but workforce development remains an important part of expanding heat-pump adoption.
Heat Pumps Are Becoming the New HVAC Default
Heat pumps are no longer a niche technology supported only by climate policy. Their strongest advantage is practical: they combine heating and cooling in one increasingly efficient appliance.
Shipments have exceeded gas furnaces for several years, early 2026 sales widened that lead and new-home installations are approaching or surpassing conventional heating systems in important parts of the country.
The transition will remain gradual because existing furnaces will not disappear immediately, installation costs can be high and regional energy prices differ. Even so, the direction of the market is becoming difficult to ignore.
Heat pumps are not merely competing with furnaces. They are also approaching conventional air conditioners, making the two-way system a likely default whenever an American home needs complete heating and cooling equipment.
