Europe’s PC market is heading into 2026 with two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions. A global memory crunch is threatening to choke supply and push up prices just as a long-delayed Windows 11 refresh cycle finally gathers momentum. The result is a market where demand looks healthier than the headline shipment numbers will show, and where buyers, vendors and component makers are all scrambling to adapt.
Instead of a simple post-pandemic hangover, the region faces a structural reset. Corporate and public sector fleets that sat on Windows 10 for years are now under pressure to move, while memory makers divert capacity to data centers hungry for AI workloads. How Europe balances those pressures will define pricing, product mix and even which brands gain or lose share through 2026.
Memory crunch collides with a fragile recovery
After several weak years, global PC demand finally showed signs of life, with Q4 unit volumes climbing as buyers returned to the market. According to industry trackers, Q4 PC Shipments Rise by exactly 9.6%, a clear signal that the worst of the pandemic-era hangover is over. Yet that rebound is running straight into a shortage of key components, with Jan reports warning that a looming Memory squeeze could cap shipments in 2026 even if end-user appetite holds up.
Analysts now expect that constraint, rather than weak demand, to be the main brake on growth. One Jan assessment notes that memory shortages are not clearing quickly and could hit PC shipments in 2026, a view echoed by market watchers who say the recovery will be “frustrating” for buyers. Another forecast from Dec explains that Although IDC still projects the global PC market will contract by 2.4% in 2026, it also warns that average selling prices could jump by up to 8% as vendors pass on higher component costs, with some already shipping systems without RAM installed to work around the bottleneck, according to Although IDC.
AI data centers siphon RAM away from PCs
The memory crunch is not a simple cyclical shortage, it is being structurally reshaped by AI infrastructure. One Jan analysis from IDC, cited in component industry reporting, warns that data centers will consume 70 percent of memory chips made in 2026, leaving PC makers to fight over the remaining 30 percent of output. That same report notes that IDC now sees the PC market at risk of shrinking by up to 9% in 2026 because of skyrocketing RAM prices, with RAM suppliers like Samsung raising prices by up to double digits.
European buyers are feeling the knock-on effects as component supply is diverted toward hyperscale and cloud providers. One Feb report notes that Component supply is being diverted toward datacenters, squeezing the consumer market and setting up PC price rises from Q2 onward, according to Component channel data. Another Dec briefing from Canalys, cited by industry media, underlines that forecasts of PC market growth in 2026 are unlikely to materialise because of supply constraints rather than demand, with AI acceleration and global DRAM shortages reshaping the broader tech market, according to Dec.
Windows 11 refresh forces Europe’s hand
While components tighten, Europe is also entering a forced operating system transition. When Microsoft ended mainstream support for Windows 10 in October 2025, many businesses expected immediate disruption, but Instead they discovered a more gradual shift, with extended security options buying time yet not eliminating the need to plan upgrades, according to When Microsoft. In parallel, regulators in Europe pushed for more consumer-friendly terms, and Sep reporting shows that While Windows Backup will no longer be required in the EEA, users still need to sign into a Microsoft account at least once to access free Windows 10 extended security updates, a concession that gives European households extra breathing room, according to While Windows Backup.
Even with those cushions, the Windows 11 era is now shaping hardware plans. Earlier guidance from Sep shows that Windows Central reports that Microsoft is changing the rules on the free year of updates, extending support for Windows 10 for some users but still nudging them toward newer devices that can run Windows 11 smoothly, according to Windows Central. Usage data from Feb also shows that Windows 11 adoption has been uneven, with one analysis of desktop share pointing to a “big jump” and then a “big drop” in January as Windows 10 briefly regained momentum, according to a Windows market breakdown. I see that volatility as a sign that many European organisations are still testing the waters, but the end of free security lifelines will eventually force a more decisive refresh.
Europe’s notebook surge and desktop duality
Within Europe, the memory squeeze is already changing buying patterns. A Feb supply chain report notes that a Memory crunch accelerates notebook orders as corporate and consumer buyers pull forward purchases before further price hikes, with CSP deals tightening memory supply as 1Q26 prices surge and Notebook makers racing to secure long-term contracts, according to Memory. Those CSP agreements, which lock in large blocks of DRAM for cloud service providers, leave less flexibility for European OEMs to respond if Windows 11 demand spikes faster than expected.
At the same time, The European Union desktop PC market is described as a study in structural duality and strategic evolution, Characterized by a split between high-end, innovation-driven segments and cost-sensitive volume buyers, with production shifting toward more export-oriented models, according to The European Union. That duality matters in a shortage: premium workstations and gaming rigs can absorb higher RAM prices, but entry-level desktops for schools and small offices in southern and eastern Europe are far more exposed. I expect some governments and enterprises to stretch existing desktop lifecycles, focusing scarce budget on notebooks that enable hybrid work and on AI-capable endpoints where they see clearer productivity gains.
Stable volumes, higher prices and an AI pivot
Despite the turbulence, some forecasts still see a relatively flat global market in unit terms. One Nov outlook states that The PC market is expected to remain stable in 2026 at 276 m units, with AI-capable PCs reaching 50% of total shipments in 202, and warns that this stability will mask significant mix shifts and price hikes in 2026, according to The PC. That aligns with channel feedback from Aug, where a poll of partners found that the commercial refresh cycle is providing vital momentum, with one vendor shipping 5.0 million units in a quarter as corporate buyers finally move on ageing fleets, according to the poll.
In Europe, I expect that combination of stable volumes and rising prices to translate into a sharper focus on value and capability rather than raw unit growth. Jan commentary from Canalys, cited in a Dec briefing, already argues that forecasts of PC market growth in 2026 are unlikely to materialise because of supply constraints, not because users have lost interest in new devices, according to Dec. Layer that on top of the 2.4% contraction and up to 8% price rises flagged by Although IDC, and the picture that emerges is of a European PC market that is smaller on paper but richer in capability, with AI-ready Windows 11 notebooks and premium desktops soaking up a growing share of spend while legacy Windows 10 machines hang on at the margins.
