The Champions League knockout phase play-off first legs bring a different kind of tension, with heavyweight clubs trying to avoid early embarrassment and newcomers sensing a rare opening. Lineup decisions will shape those storylines, from how Real Madrid structure their star-studded attack to the balance PSG strike in an all-Ligue 1 clash. This preview focuses on the ties where team news is clearest and where tactical choices look most likely to tilt the first legs.
The schedule is tight and unforgiving, with the UEFA Champions League knockout phase beginning on 17 February and the play-offs split across Tuesday and Wednesday nights. As first-timers such as Qarabag and Bodo/Glimt chase upsets and established powers confront tricky away trips, the predicted XIs already hint at which managers are prepared to be bold and which are leaning on continuity.
Benfica vs Real Madrid: defensive reshuffles and a superstar front line
Real Madrid arrive in Lisbon with a clear idea of their spine but several choices to make in defense. The predicted lineup for the trip to Benfica has Thibaut Courtois in goal after back-to-back clean sheets in La Liga, with a back four that can realistically include Éder Militão, Antonio Rüdiger and Ferland Mendy depending on fitness and form. Courtois is the established number one, while a fit Éder Militão offers pace and recovery defending that complements the more positional style of Antonio Rüdiger. On the left, the physical and tactical reliability of Ferland Mendy makes him a logical pick in a hostile away environment.
In midfield and attack, Real Madrid are expected to lean on their energy and star power to control long spells of the tie. The predicted XI against Benfica lists Thibaut Courtois behind a three-man midfield built around Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouameni and Federico Valverde, with Arda Güler, Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé forming a devastating front three. The creative talent of Arda Güler between the lines should give Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé plenty of chances to isolate Benfica’s full backs, while the running power of Camavinga, Tchouameni and Valverde should help Madrid press high when the chance arises.
Benfica’s response: Trubin’s platform and Arbeloa’s structure
Benfica’s best hope of repeating their league-phase upset lies in reproducing the compact structure that frustrated Real Madrid earlier this season. The predicted home lineup has Anatoliy Trubin in goal, with Amar Dedic, Tomás Araújo, Nicolás Otamendi and Samuel Dahl across the back, and a double pivot of Leandro Barreiro and Enzo Barrenechea shielding them. That setup, already outlined as Benfica’s likely XI, gives Álvaro Arbeloa a blend of youth and experience, with Otamendi’s leadership alongside the younger Tomás Araújo and the athleticism of Amar Dedic on the right.
Higher up the pitch, Benfica are expected to field a trio of Gianluca Prestianni, Rafa Silva and David Neres behind a central striker, which should test Real Madrid’s full backs if the hosts can win turnovers in midfield. The earlier prediction of a 4-2-3-1 with Trubin, Dedić, T. Araújo, Otamendi and Dahl already highlighted how much responsibility sits with the wide defenders to contain Vinícius Júnior and Kylian Mbappé. If Benfica’s press around Barreiro and Barrenechea forces Madrid to play longer, Trubin’s command of his box and distribution will be essential to turn those clearances into controlled possession rather than constant waves of pressure.
PSG at Monaco: Chevalier’s chance and a star-studded supporting cast
PSG head into their all-Ligue 1 tie at Monaco with a relatively settled structure and a young goalkeeper thrust into the spotlight. The predicted lineup against Newcastle earlier this year listed Lucas Chevalier in goal, with Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho and Nuno Mendes in a back four, and there is little reason to expect a major departure from that shape. Chevalier has already been described as “The Frenchman” set to face Marseille again in the Trophée des Champions, and his growing status makes him the logical choice for Monaco as well, protected by the experience of Hakimi, the authority of Marquinhos, the left-sided security of Pacho and the attacking thrust of Mendes.
In midfield and attack, PSG are expected to stick with a three-man engine room and a dynamic front line that can stretch Monaco’s back four. The recent prediction of a 4-3-3 had Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz and Neves in midfield, with Désiré Doué and Ousmane Dembélé flanking Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. That combination of Vitinha, Fabián Ruiz and Neves gives PSG control in central areas, while Doué, Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia provide the dribbling and movement that can unpick Monaco’s defensive block. With Monaco described as inconsistent under Sebastien Pocognoli and PSG priced at -1.5 (1.5) on the handicap at +135 (135) with Sports Interaction, the visitors’ attacking depth looks like a clear advantage if they take their chances.
Galatasaray vs Juventus: Osimhen’s threat and Spalletti’s new-look attack
The early kick-off on Tuesday sends Juventus to a Galatasaray side that has already shown it can unsettle elite opposition. Galatasaray’s predicted XI is set up in a 4-2-3-1, with Ugurcan Cakir in goal, Attila Szalai, Davinson Sanchez, Abdülkerim Bardakci and Kazimcan Karatas or Eren Elmali in defense, Lucas Torreira and Kerem Aktürkoğlu or Kerem Demirbay in the double pivot, and a line of wingers behind Victor Osimhen. Recent coverage of Galatasaray’s squad has stressed how many former Premier League players they can field, including former Tottenham defender Davinson Sanchez and a former Southampton midfielder, while confirming that striker Victor Osimhen is fit to start. That blend of physicality and top-level experience makes the Turkish champions a serious threat in front of their own fans.
Juventus arrive in Istanbul with Luciano Spalletti in charge and a squad that is in strong form but missing some important names. Recent team news from their domestic fixtures in France, where they faced Monaco, highlighted adductor issues for certain players and confirmed that the central striker role has passed to new arrival Jonathan David. The projected Juventus XI at Galatasaray is expected to include a back line marshalled by Gleison Bremer, with Di Gregorio in goal, Andrea Cambiaso and possibly Pierre Kalulu at full back, and a midfield that can feature Manuel Locatelli, Fabio Miretti, Kenan Yildiz and Weston McKennie. The presence of Di Gregorio, Cambiasso, Bremer, Kalulu, Miretti, Locatelli, Yildiz, McKennie and Jonathan David points to a side built to press aggressively and exploit transitions, which could leave space for Osimhen if their shape becomes too stretched.
Qarabag, Bodo/Glimt and the outsiders aiming for a shock
Beyond the headline ties, the knockout phase play-offs also feature clubs who are treating this round as uncharted territory. Azerbaijan’s Qarabag and Norway’s Bodo/Glimt are both first-timers at this stage, and their campaigns have already been described as history-making European runs. Qarabag’s predicted XI for the first leg has Kochalski in goal, with Silva, Mustafazade, Medina and Jafarguliyev in defense, Bicalho and Janković in midfield, and Leandro Andrade, Montiel, Zoubir and Duran forming an attacking quartet. That structure gives them width and numbers in the final third, but it also demands huge work from Silva, Mustafazade and Medina to hold a high line under pressure.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, are built around a clear attacking identity that has already troubled bigger clubs in Europe. Their emergence alongside Qarabag as first-time participants in this phase underlines how the expanded Champions League format is creating opportunities for well-run sides outside the traditional top five leagues. The overall knockout phase structure, set out by UEFA with the 2025–26 Champions League knockout phase beginning on 17 February, means these clubs must adjust quickly to two-legged ties after a league-style group stage. How they handle that shift in intensity and preparation will go a long way to deciding whether the play-offs produce the kind of upset that shapes the rest of the competition.
